An update on the situation.
Libya – Comment and Analysis from Control Risk
Residents of the capital Tripoli and the cities of Benghazi (Benghazi province), Misratah (Misratah province), Al Bayda (Al Jabal al Akhdar province), Darnah (Darnah province) and Tubruq (Tubruq province) have been called upon to gather at mosques following afternoon prayers on 17 February, as well as on the following day, after Friday prayers, and then carry out rallies. In Tripoli, protesters will march from the mosques to Green Square.
The upcoming demonstrations have primarily been organized via the internet and the authorities have reportedly blocked several internet pages that publicize them; this could result in a modest turnout. The security forces are expected to quickly disperse any rallies that take place. However, foreign business personnel will face a limited incidental risk of exposure to violence during any scuffles between security personnel and protesters. An increased security deployment in eastern cities such as Benghazi, Al Bayda, Darnah and Tubruq and at government buildings could cause travel disruption; security checkpoints have been erected around eastern cities.
In Libya, the government has taken pre-emptive steps in response to the disturbances in neighboring countries: it has announced an abolition of taxes and duties on food products to curb an inflationary trend in food prices, imposed a state of emergency, issued orders for the security forces to disperse gatherings, increased the security presence in eastern cities – where opposition to the government is greater – and at government buildings, cancelled football matches to prevent boisterous gatherings, and carried out arrests. Although protests nevertheless remain possible, the security forces are believed to be capable of efficiently disrupting them. As a result, demonstrations are not expected to be at such a large scale as to threaten the regime.
Travel Advice
• Avoid demonstrations as a precaution; do not stop to watch or photograph them. There is a low, but credible risk of clashes between protesters and the security forces, or encountering xenophobic hostility.
• Avoid sensitive topics of discussion; these include democratization and human rights.
• Allow extra time for road travel on 17-18 February, especially in eastern areas of the country.
